27 May. 2015 | Comments (0)
In Defense of Our Most Controversial Labor Markets Chart
One of the charts central to our labor shortages work shows that there will be almost no growth in the U.S. working-age population in the next 15 years. Of all of the charts we show in our discussion of evolving labor shortages, the findings revealed in this chart receive the most pushback.
20 May. 2015 | Comments (4)
Ten Extreme Predictions That Have More than a 10% Probability of Happening
In the list below, I make ten predictions about the U.S. economy and labor market. I think each of them has less than a 50%, but more than a 10%, chance of happening.
11 May. 2015 | Comments (1)
The U.S. Labor Market Recovery: This Time It’s Different?
What is a “normal” labor market recovery? Typically, economic activity starts expanding and soon after employment begins to grow. However, during the past five years, several groups of economists have argued that for various reasons the current labor market recovery will be fundamentally abnormal.
29 Apr. 2015 | Comments (0)
Are Baby Boomers Really Retiring in Large Numbers?
One comment or question that we often receive while discussing our labor shortages prediction is whether or not baby boomers are really retiring in large numbers since the Great Recession reduced retirement preparedness of many older workers, forcing them to stay in the labor force longer.
23 Apr. 2015 | Comments (0)
Labor Market Slack Varies Dramatically Across U.S. States
The national unemployment rate reached 5.5% in March, which is in the range that most economists consider the natural rate of unemployment. However, this national number masks large variation across the states.
31 Mar. 2015 | Comments (0)
Faster Than Expected: The U.S. Labor Market Continues To Tighten
Six months after our major report on looming labor shortages in the U.S. and other advanced economies, it’s time to take stock. How is the labor market doing, where is it going, and what does it all mean for employers, workers, and families?
24 Mar. 2015 | Comments (1)
Hiring Qualified Workers: Is it Really That Hard?
In the past year, indicators of the perceived difficulty in recruiting qualified workers have suggested that it has become as hard to recruit qualified workers now as during 2007, the last pre-recession year, in which the U.S. labor market was quite tight. These measures are somewhat surprising.
19 Mar. 2015 | Comments (0)
Still Dropping: The Impact of Oil Prices on the Labor Market Is Becoming More Visible
A few weeks ago, we posted a blog titled, Huge Drop In New Job Ads For Oil-Related Occupations, describing the impact of the drop in oil prices on the labor market. Since then, we’ve learned more. Today, we draw on new data and our expanded analysis to update and add to our previous results.
03 Mar. 2015 | Comments (0)
Huge Drop In New Job Ads For Oil-Related Occupations
The drop in oil prices is likely to be net positive for employment in the United States. But it’s not good news for everyone. While we have not seen a large employment drop in the oil and gas extraction industry, we do see a drop in new job ads in oil and gas extraction-related occupations.
23 Feb. 2015 | Comments (0)
It Is Not Crazy To Expect A Crazy Low Unemployment Rate In Two Years
Has the idea of a tight labor market moved from theory to reality? The recent rapid job growth and large drop in the unemployment rate make this question a timely one.
10 Feb. 2015 | Comments (0)
Strong Job Growth, But In Which Industries?
Over recent years, and in 2014 especially, job growth has been quite strong, which helped to significantly lower the unemployment rate. Yet, behind those impressive averages is a large variation in growth across industries.
02 Feb. 2015 | Comments (0)
Wage Growth – The Young Shall Lead Us
One labor market measure that has barely begun to recover is the wage rate. Wage growth is higher than the period right after the Great Recession, but still well below normal rates. Why has wage recovery been so slow?
12 Jan. 2015 | Comments (2)
What’s coming? “Secular Stagnation” or Stagflation?
The rapid decline in the unemployment rate continues to surprise most, and many economists persist in predicting that labor productivity will accelerate and labor force participation will start to rise. This has yet to happen, and at this point we should consider that it may not happen soon.
18 Dec. 2014 | Comments (0)
Have Corporate Profits Peaked?
Since the beginning of 2009, corporate profits in the United States have been on a growth trend, but this trend may be changing. This leads us to ask: Have corporate profits peaked for this business cycle? Or is this just a pause in an otherwise ongoing trend of increasing corporate profits?
11 Dec. 2014 | Comments (0)
New Teleworking Data Revealed! More and More People Are Working From Home
In May, 2012, The Conference Board released a report on teleworking, titled The Incredible Disappearing Office. In this blog, we will use newly available data from the American Community Survey to explore how trends in teleworking have continued to progress across the country in 2013.
30 Sep. 2014 | Comments (0)
Timeline: What Countries Are Going To Experience Labor Shortages And When?
Talking about labor market tightness in several mature economies may seem out of place, given that unemployment rates in these countries are still extremely high. However, there is a huge variation in current labor market tightness across countries and occupations.
17 Sep. 2014 | Comments (0)
Expected Labor Shortages Among Skilled Labor
Starting with this post, we will publish a series of blogs focusing on different groups who suffer from an intense concentration of high-risk occupations with a specific concentration on skilled labor.
04 Sep. 2014 | Comments (0)
Tight Labor Market is Coming! Prepare or Fail
This week, The Conference Board launched a new report, From Not Enough Jobs to Not Enough Workers. This report expands on the labor shortage theme in several important ways.
18 Jun. 2014 | Comments (0)
New Job Satisfaction Report From The Conference Board
The annual survey of Job Satisfaction was released last week by The Conference Board. In this blog, I would like to highlight some of the key findings.
04 Jun. 2014 | Comments (0)
U.S. Labor Market Outlook
Economic activity in the U.S. is still disappointing. In recent years, GDP growth has been in the range of 2 - 2.5 percent. In the first quarter of 2014, GDP declined by one percent at an annual rate. This is partly due to the impact of the severe winter experienced in some parts of the country.
08 May. 2014 | Comments (1)
Are We Too Worried about STEM Shortages?
Our results suggest that STEM occupations are not particularly at risk of talent shortages compared with other skilled occupations, a result that may surprise some analysts. Here are four reasons why we should not be very concerned about talent shortages in STEM occupations.
01 May. 2014 | Comments (0)
From an Employer’s To a Job Seeker’s Market: The U.S. Labor Market Is Shifting Gears
Today, The Conference Board released a report titled, “From a Buyer’s Market to a Seller’s Market – Declining Unemployment and Evolving Labor Shortages in the United States.” In this blog, we highlight some of the report's main findings.
07 Apr. 2014 | Comments (0)
Occupations Most At Risk of Labor Shortages in the Next Decade
In an earlier blog, we discussed the macroeconomic implications of the labor shortages in the U.S. that we predicted are looming through 2030. In this blog, we identify occupations that are most at risk of experiencing labor shortages through 2022.
18 Mar. 2014 | Comments (0)
More On Trends In Teleworking
In this blog post, we will take a closer look at some of the individual industries and occupations experiencing the most notable growth rates in the percent of employees who primarily telework. We will also look at regional trends in the telework growth rates.
10 Mar. 2014 | Comments (0)
The ACA and Labor Supply
In January, as part of the appendix to their annual budget outlook, the Congressional Budget Office took the time to update their estimates with regard to the effect of the Affordable Care Act on labor markets.
19 Feb. 2014 | Comments (0)
Main trends in the US labor market, February 2014
The main story in the US labor market is that it is rapidly tightening as the unemployment rate has dropped to 6.6%. This has taken place while economic recovery has been historically weak, which has made many economists doubt how tight the labor market actually is.
05 Feb. 2014 | Comments (0)
Update on Trends in Teleworking
Using the 2012 American Community Survey data, we examined full-time employees, excluding those who are either self-employed or work part-time, as well as those in the armed forces or group quarters, who primarily work from home.
29 Jan. 2014 | Comments (0)
What will be the Fastest Growing Occupations in the Coming Decade?
We continue our series on the Bureau of Labor Statistics 2012-2022 Employment Projections by focusing on growth within occupations. Total employment is expected to grow by about 15 million (or a little over 10 percent) by the year 2022.
21 Jan. 2014 | Comments (1)
What will be the fastest growing industries?
This will be the first in a series of blogs about the Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Projections. Once every two years, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases its Employment Projections.
17 Jan. 2014 | Comments (0)
15 years of a tight labor market are around the corner
In this blog, I want to elaborate on when the slow growth of labor supply is likely to become a serious problem, and the implications for the US labor market in the preceding 15 years.
19 Dec. 2013 | Comments (1)
Demand Driven Secular Stagnation?
Rarely has one speech had as strong an impact on the economics community as the one Larry Summers gave last month about secular stagnation in the US economy. In his speech, Summers proposed that the US economy’s inability to reach its potential level stems from chronically weak aggregate demand.
30 Oct. 2013 | Comments (0)
Global Economic Conditions and Their Impact on Labor Markets
The Great Recession ended more than four years ago, but the global economy, especially in advanced countries, has far from fully recovered. GDP in the advanced world is barely above its 2007 level. Why has the global economy been unable to resume faster growth rates?
25 Sep. 2013 | Comments (2)
Why is the Unemployment Rate Declining So Rapidly?
During the 46 months since the peak unemployment rate of 10% in 2009, the unemployment rate has declined by 2.7%. This decrease is faster than the unemployment rate declines of the previous two recoveries, despite GDP growing much faster during those recoveries than in the current one.
17 Sep. 2013 | Comments (0)
Will The Retirement of Baby Boomers Cause Skill Shortages?
This week, we examine the potential impact of the retirement of baby boomers on skill shortages. For decades, researchers have warned about the impeding shortages that would occur when the oldest baby boomers start reaching retirement age.
15 Aug. 2013 | Comments (0)
Main trends in the U.S. labor markets - August 2013
Four years after the Great Recession, the U.S. economy continues to grow at a frustratingly slow pace. Over the past 4 quarters, GDP grew by just 1.4 percent, far below the 3-4 percent average we typically see during years of economic expansion.
06 Aug. 2013 | Comments (0)
In What Locations Skill Shortages are Most Likely to Develop
Continuing with our series on skill shortages, this week we examine labor market tightness by geography. Not all states face the same labor market. As a result, skill shortages are more likely to develop faster in some areas than in others.
25 Jul. 2013 | Comments (0)
Skill Shortages in STEM – Fact or Fiction?
According to the U.S. Department of Commerce, “Over the past 10 years, growth in STEM jobs was three times as fast as growth in non-STEM jobs.” However, there has been some debate about STEM shortages.
19 Jul. 2013 | Comments (2)
Occupations With The Highest Percentage of Women
Publically available data from household surveys in the United States provide a wealth of information related to diversity and inclusion metrics and trends. In this blog, using the 2012 Current Population Survey, we examine the share of women in different occupations.
11 Jul. 2013 | Comments (0)
Look out! The Labor Market is Improving. What Does That Mean For HR Professionals?
For most executives, a strengthening economy is good news. Higher revenues and profits mean better sleep at night. However, an improving labor market is a mixed blessing for human capital professionals.
02 Jul. 2013 | Comments (0)
The Future of Teleworking: Five Factors to Make It a Growing Trend
This blog looks at several trends that may affect the future of teleworking. We conclude that in the next several years, the American workforce is likely to continue shifting towards teleworking.
25 Jun. 2013 | Comments (0)
The Determinants of Job Satisfaction
The annual survey of Job Satisfaction was released last week by The Conference board. In this blog, I would like to focus on the section related to the determinants of job satisfaction.
11 Jun. 2013 | Comments (0)
Why Productivity Growth Is Good For a Healthier Labor Market
Why are we creating so few jobs in the United States? As a matter of fact … we are not. Nevertheless, there has not been much of a feel-good factor about the job market as the unemployment rate has remained stubbornly high.
08 May. 2013 | Comments (0)
Major Trends in the U.S. Labor Market
Almost four years since the end of the Great Recession, the U.S. economy is still unable to enjoy typical growth rates during times of economic expansion. GDP growth has even been declining since 2010 and averaging less than two percent in the past four quarters.
30 Apr. 2013 | Comments (0)
New Immigration Reform and the Labor Market
What the passage of the Border Security, Economic Opportunity, and Immigration Modernization Act of 2013 would mean for Human Capital Professionals.
09 Apr. 2013 | Comments (0)
What do Human Capital Professionals Need to Know about the Sequester?
The U.S. government “sequester” represents across-the-board federal spending cuts starting on March 1st, 2013, and aims to reduce total government spending by $85.4 billion in FY2013 and $1.2 trillion through 2021.
22 Mar. 2013 | Comments (0)
High Retention Rates Across Most Industries
According to The Conference Board’s job satisfaction survey, worker satisfaction levels are relatively low. However, relatively few people voluntarily quit their jobs. Quit rates are still well below pre-recession levels.
12 Mar. 2013 | Comments (0)
Yahoo! Swims Against the Current as Telework Rates Rise
The topic of teleworking has been featured in the headlines as a result of Yahoo! CEO Marissa Mayer’s decision to re-evaluate the teleworking policy in the company. We take a closer look at the occupations and industries that have seen the greatest increase in full-time employees working remotely.
20 Feb. 2013 | Comments (0)
Groups of Workers That Have Experienced the Largest Decline in Wage Growth
The Great Recession significantly increased the unemployment rate in the United States. As a result, wage growth has slowed down since 2008. This blog describes how the trends in wage growth have changed since the recession.
01 Feb. 2013 | Comments (1)
A Huge Increase in the Percent of Workers Planning to Delay Retirement
According to a new report released by The Conference Board, older workers intend to postpone their retirement now more than ever, despite a recovering U.S. economy.
24 Jan. 2013 | Comments (2)
Twenty Year View of Labor Productivity in Advanced Countries
In this post, we take a closer look at the growth in labor productivity and its components over the past 20 years. Labor productivity refers to how much is produced per hour of work.
16 Jan. 2013 | Comments (3)
Research Shows Employees More Likely To Telework
Last year, The Conference Board published a report on the upward trend of teleworking and its implications on business. Using the American Community Survey, the report found slow but steady growth in the percent of full-time employees working from home.
04 Jan. 2013 | Comments (0)
When Will the Unemployment Rate Reach 6.5 Percent?
The Federal Reserve’s latest statement announced that it will keep interest rates near zero until unemployment reaches 6.5 percent, triggering a big discussion in the media regarding when we will actually reach this number. I used published data to make my own estimation.
13 Dec. 2012 | Comments (2)
Is Wage Growth as Low As The Government Says It Is?
Government measures show that wage growth is at an historic low and it is still not recovering. Why is there a mismatch between government measures and human capital professionals’ observations?
04 Dec. 2012 | Comments (0)
Major Trends in the U.S. labor market: December 2012
The U.S. economy entered a soft patch in the spring, growing at an annual rate of less than 2 percent, and is expected to continue weak growth through the first half of 2013. This slowdown is mainly a result of several factors.
28 Nov. 2012 | Comments (1)
What Metro Areas Have the Highest and Lowest Pay?
When companies decide on locations for new operations, they should look at measures of pay for the specific types of workers that they need to hire, and compare those measures across locations.
12 Nov. 2012 | Comments (2)
Ethnic/Racial Makeup of Specific Locations is Likely to be an Important Determinant of Future Labor Shortages
While there may be enough young workers in the labor force to fill positions, in many states, these incoming workers are significantly less educated than retirees. Such gaps in education levels between younger and older co-workers reveal the causes of talent shortages looming in the near future.
05 Nov. 2012 | Comments (0)
Why is Compensation Growth So Low in a Time When Profitability is So High?
The Employment Cost Index for September was released this week. This measure gets a lot of attention as it is considered the best measure of trends in compensation growth. Compensation is comprised of wages, salaries and benefits.
09 Oct. 2012 | Comments (0)
The Human Capital Implications of a Weak Labor Market
The state of the labor market has a profound impact on the types of challenges that human capital professionals face. Some of the implications of this current weak labor market are shared across most businesses.
28 Sep. 2012 | Comments (0)
In Praise of the American Community Survey
Last week, the United States Census Bureau released data from the 2011 American Community Survey (ACS). We believe the ACS should be an important source of information for many human capital professionals. Here’s why...
20 Sep. 2012 | Comments (0)
Baby-Boomers Retiring and the Unemployment Rate Declining
Despite disappointing job growth, one of the more surprising aspects of the current labor market recovery is that the unemployment rate has actually been declining quite significantly. This unexpected recovery is mainly due to a slow-down in the growth of the working age population.
06 Sep. 2012 | Comments (0)
Quit rates – Still Low and Are Unlikely to Rise Much in the Coming Months
For human capital executives, labor turnover and retention rates are among the most important measures to follow. Given the high cost of replacing existing workers, companies should hope for high retention (i.e. low quit rates) in their payroll.
13 Aug. 2012 | Comments (0)
Main Trends in the U.S. Labor Market – August 2012
The U.S. economy slowed down significantly in the first half of 2012, growing at an annual rate of just 1.75 percent, and is expected to continue to be weak in the second half of 2012. However, several positive factors support the economy.
09 Aug. 2012 | Comments (0)
State Employment Recovery
While employment in the United States has been increasing in almost every state over the past 2 years, the magnitude of the increase has varied quite significantly between states.
27 Jul. 2012 | Comments (0)
Labor Market Conditions Across U.S. States Has Varied Almost as Dramatically as Across Countries Worldwide
The variation in labor market conditions across American states during the past four years has been remarkable. The disparity across states has been almost as severe as the disparity across countries.
18 Jul. 2012 | Comments (0)
Is There a Talent Shortage in the U.S.? Start By Looking at Hours Worked
Talent shortages are difficult to measure and identify. We propose that one way to learn if there are talent shortages is to examine the average weekly hours worked by occupation.
10 Jul. 2012 | Comments (2)
Not All New College Graduates are Suffering Equally
Although new college graduates are among those most impacted by the great recession, the top earners of the new graduating class were earning more in 2010-2011 than were the top earners of the 2007-2008 graduating class.
11 Jun. 2012 | Comments (0)
Why Can’t Managers Trust Their Employees to Telework?
The rise of the teleworker has allowed for increased flexibility, and many teleworkers cite such advantages as improved performance and better productivity with fewer distractions. However, managerial acceptance remains one of the significant barriers to successful implementation.
04 Jun. 2012 | Comments (0)
The Rise of the Teleworker: End of Corporate Office Space?
The nature of work is changing…and in so many different ways. With advancements in technologies, work can occur in an office, at home, or traveling through an airport.
04 Jun. 2012 | Comments (0)
Why is Employment Growth Still Disappointing and When Will it be “Normal” Again?
I’m often being asked why employment growth in the U.S. is still disappointing. The recession ended almost three years ago and U.S. employers are still cautious about hiring new workers. There are several combined factors that are dragging down the U.S. economy and labor market.
31 May. 2012 | Comments (0)
Projected Job Openings By Occupation in the Next Decade
The May 1st blog, which focused on the fastest growing occupations projected by the BLS as part of its 2010-2020 employment projections, was the most popular ever in this series. This post follows up on some questions and comments about that blog.
01 May. 2012 | Comments (4)
What Will Be the Fastest Growing Occupations This Decade?
Recently, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released its employment outlook for the 2010 to 2020 period. In this blog, we describe the main findings, and focus, in particular, on the results by occupation.
27 Mar. 2012 | Comments (1)
Major Trends in the U.S. labor market: First Quarter 2012
Please view this blog to see U.S. Labor Market trends for the first quarter of 2012.
01 Mar. 2012 | Comments (0)
Should The National CPI Be Used for Adjusting for Cost of Living Increases in Specific Metro Areas?
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is often used in escalation agreements between employers and workers as the basis for Cost of Living Adjustment.
09 Feb. 2012 | Comments (2)
Slowing Productivity Growth. Why?
In the past 10-15 years, labor productivity (output produced per hour of work) in the non-farm business sector increased on average by 2-3 percent annually.
02 Feb. 2012 | Comments (0)
New Employment Cost Index release: continued very low compensation growth
The Employment Cost Index for December was released this week. It is considered the best measure of trends in compensation growth because it accounts for changes in the occupation and industry distribution of the work force.
18 Jan. 2012 | Comments (0)
Employment Recovery across Industries
During the 30 months since the great recession ended, U.S. employers added only 1.4 million jobs, approximately one percent of the non-farm workforce.
26 Dec. 2011 | Comments (5)
Main Trends in the U.S. Labor Market
As the New Year is approaching, I thought it would be a good time to summarize what I think are the main trends in the U.S. labor market.
19 Dec. 2011 | Comments (2)
Labor Shortages in a Period of Very High Unemployment Rate: Geography and Occupation Matters
The number of unemployed is more than four times larger than the number of job openings. So why do we hear about the difficulty in filling vacancies with qualified workers?