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Global Business Cycle Indicators

Australia

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Benchmark Revisions - January 2008

Press Release Archive

Released: Monday, April 21, 2014

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Australia increased 0.3 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) also increased 0.4 percent in February.

  • The Conference Board LEI for Australia increased again in February, and there were upward revisions to the index as actual data for money supply, building approvals, and rural goods exports became available. With this month’s increase, the six-month growth rate between August 2013 and February 2014 has picked up to 2.6 percent (about a 5.2 percent annual rate) from 0.6 percent (about a 1.3 percent annual rate) for the previous six months. Additionally, the strengths among the leading indicators remained very widespread over the past six months.
  • The Conference Board CEI for Australia, a measure of current economic activity, also increased in February, and all its components continued to advance. With February’s gain, the coincident economic index grew by 1.1 percent (about a 2.3 percent annual rate) in the six-month period through February 2014, up from 0.2 percent (about a 0.3 percent annual rate) in the previous six months. Meanwhile, real GDP increased at a 3.2 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2013, an improvement from 2.6 percent (annual rate) in the third quarter.
  • The Conference Board LEI for Australia has been rising since September 2013, and its six-month growth rate has picked up in recent months. At the same time, The Conference Board CEI for Australia has been increasing as well, and its six-month growth rate has continued to improve. Taken together, the current behavior of the composite indexes suggests that economic expansion will continue in the near term, and the pace of growth in unlikely to  slow in the near term.

LEADING INDICATORS.  Five of the seven components in The Conference Board LEI for Australia increased in February. The positive contributors to the index — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — are the yield spread, share prices, money supply*, the sales to inventories ratio* and gross operating surplus*. Rural goods exports declined, while building approvals remained unchanged in February.    

With the 0.3 percent increase in February, The Conference Board LEI for Australia now stands at 128.6 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.2 percent in January and increased 0.9 percent in December. During the six-month period through February, the leading economic index increased 2.6 percent, and all seven components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).

COINCIDENT INDICATORS. All four of the components in The Conference Board CEI for Australia increased in February.  The increases -  in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – occurred in employed persons, retail trade, household gross disposable income* and industrial production*.

With the increase of 0.4 percent in February, The Conference Board CEI for Australia now stands at 124.2 (2004=100).  Based on revised data, this index increased 0.2 percent in January and increased 0.1 percent in December.  During the six-month period through February, the coincident economic index increased 1.1 percent, with all four components in the series making positive contributions (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).

DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Australia and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Australia reported in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. ET on April 21, 2014.  Some series are estimated as noted below.

Series in The Conference Board LEI for Australia that are based on our estimates are sales to inventory ratio and gross operating surplus for private non-financial corporations, the implicit price index used to deflate rural goods exports and building approvals, and the CPI used to deflate money supply M3.  Series in The Conference Board CEI for Australia that are based on our estimates are industrial production and household disposable income.  CPI was used to deflate retail trade.
   

THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.