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Global Business Cycle Indicators

Australia

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Benchmark Revisions - January 2008

Press Release Archive

Released: Monday, May 19, 2014

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Australia was unchanged and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) increased 0.2 percent in March.

  • The Conference Board LEI for Australia was unchanged in March, with negative contributions from building approvals offsetting the positive contributions from the yield spread and sales to inventories ratio. The six-month growth rate of the leading economic index was 2.1 percent (about a 4.3 percent annual rate) from September 2013 to March 2014, higher than its growth of 0.9 percent (about a 1.8 percent annual rate) for the previous six months. The strengths among the leading indicators remained very widespread, with all components advancing over the past six months.
  • The Conference Board CEI for Australia, a measure of current economic activity, increased in March, and all its components continued to advance. With March’s gain, the coincident economic index grew by 1.4 percent (about a 2.8 percent annual rate) in the six-month period through March 2014 – considerably stronger than its 0.2 percent growth (about a 0.5 percent annual rate) in the previous six months. Meanwhile, real GDP increased at a 3.2 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2013, an improvement from 2.6 percent (annual rate) in the third quarter.
  • The Conference Board LEI for Australia was flat in March, but its six-month growth rate has remained fairly steady since the beginning of this year.  At the same time, The Conference Board CEI for Australia increased again, and its six-month growth rate continues to improve.  Taken together, the current behavior of the composite indexes suggests that the current rate of economic expansion will continue in the coming months.

LEADING INDICATORS. ive of the seven components in The Conference Board LEI for Australia increased in March.  The positive contributors to the index — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — are the yield spread, the sales to inventories ratio*, rural goods exports, money supply*, and gross operating surplus*.  Building approvals declined, while share prices remained unchanged in March.  

With no change in March, The Conference Board LEI for Australia stands at 128.5 (2004=100).  Based on revised data, this index increased 0.2 percent in February and increased 0.2 percent in January. During the six-month period through March, the leading economic index increased 2.1 percent, and all seven components increased (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).

COINCIDENT INDICATORS. All four components in The Conference Board CEI for Australia increased in March.  The increases - in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – occurred in retail trade, employed persons, household gross disposable income*, and industrial production*.  

With the increase of 0.2 percent in March, The Conference Board CEI for Australia now stands at 124.6 (2004=100).  Based on revised data, this index increased 0.4 percent in February and increased 0.3 percent in January.  During the six-month period through March, the coincident economic index increased 1.4 percent, with all four components in the series making positive contributions (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).

DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Australia and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Australia reported in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. ET on May 19, 2014.  Some series are estimated as noted below.

Series in The Conference Board LEI for Australia that are based on our estimates are sales to inventory ratio and gross operating surplus for private non-financial corporations, the implicit price index used to deflate rural goods exports and building approvals, and the CPI used to deflate money supply M3.  Series in The Conference Board CEI for Australia that are based on our estimates are industrial production and household disposable income.  CPI was used to deflate retail trade.

THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.