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Global Business Cycle Indicators

Australia

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Benchmark Revisions - January 2008

Press Release Archive

Released: Monday, November 17, 2014

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Australia declined 0.3 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) increased 0.2 percent in September.

  • The Conference Board LEI for Australia declined in September, with building approvals and share prices making the largest negative contributions. Between March and September 2014, the six-month growth rate of the leading economic index decreased 0.3 percent (about a ?0.6 percent annual rate), a reversal from its increase of 2.5 percent (about a 5.2 percent annual rate) over the previous six months. Additionally, the weaknesses among the leading indicators have become more widespread than the strengths in the recent months.
  • The Conference Board CEI for Australia, a measure of current economic activity, increased slightly in September. The coincident economic index grew 0.6 percent (about a 1.3 percent annual rate) in the six-month period through September 2014, down from 1.5 percent (about a 3.1 percent annual rate) in the previous six months. Meanwhile, real GDP increased at a 2.0 percent annual rate in the second quarter of 2014, down from 4.3 percent (annual rate) in the first quarter.
  • The Conference Board LEI for Australia decreased in September, for the second consecutive month and its six-month growth rate remains in negative territory. Meanwhile, the six-month growth rate of the CEI for Australia continues to moderate, and is considerably slower compared to six months ago. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that economic expansion should continue in the near term, but at a slow pace.

LEADING INDICATORS. Four of the seven components in The Conference Board LEI for Australia increased in September. The positive contributors to the index—in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest—are money supply*, the yield spread, the sales to inventories ratio*, and rural goods exports. Building approvals, share prices and gross operating surplus* declined in September.

With the 0.3 percent decrease in September, The Conference Board LEI for Australia now stands at 128.6 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index declined 0.1 percent in August and increased 0.6 percent in July. During the six-month period through September, the leading economic index decreased 0.3 percent, and three of the seven components increased (diffusion index, six-month span equals 42.9 percent).

COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Three of the four components in The Conference Board CEI for Australia increased in September. The increases—in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest—occurred in retail trade, household gross disposable income* and industrial production*. Employed persons declined in September.

With the increase of 0.2 percent in September, The Conference Board CEI for Australia now stands at 125.6 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.2 percent in both August and July. During the six-month period through September, the coincident economic index increased 0.6 percent, with three of the four components in the series making positive contributions (diffusion index, six-month span equals 87.5 percent).

DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Australia and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Australia reported in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. ET on November 14, 2014. Some series are estimated as noted below.

Series in The Conference Board LEI for Australia that are based on our estimates are sales to inventory ratio and gross operating surplus for private non-financial corporations, the implicit price index used to deflate rural goods exports and building approvals, and the CPI used to deflate money supply M3. Series in The Conference Board CEI for Australia that are based on our estimates are industrial production and household disposable income. CPI was used to deflate retail trade.

THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.