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Global Business Cycle Indicators

Australia

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Benchmark Revisions - January 2008

Press Release Archive

Released: Tuesday, December 23, 2014

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Next month's release will incorporate annual benchmark revisions to the composite economic indexes, which bring them up-to-date with revisions in the source data. Also, with this benchmark revision, the base year of the composite indexes will be changed to 2010 = 100 from 2004 = 100. These revisions do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are not incorporated until the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes, in levels and month-on-month changes, will not be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision.

For more information, please visit our website at:
www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm or contact us at: indicators@conference-board.org

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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Australia declined 0.2 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) increased 0.2 percent in October.

  • The Conference Board LEI for Australia declined in October, with downward revisions to third quarter results as data for national accounts became available. Building approvals and the sales to inventories ratio made the largest negative contributions this month. Between April and October 2014, the leading economic index declined 1.0 percent (about a −2.0 percent annual rate), a reversal from its increase of 1.4 percent (about a 2.9 percent annual rate) over the previous six months. Additionally, the weaknesses among the leading indicators have become more widespread than the strengths in the recent months.
  • The Conference Board CEI for Australia, a measure of current economic activity, increased slightly in October. The coincident economic index grew 0.8 percent (about a 1.6 percent annual rate) in the six-month period through October 2014, down from 1.4 percent (about a 2.8 percent annual rate) in the previous six months. Meanwhile, real GDP expanded at a 1.4 percent annual rate in the third quarter of 2014, down from 2.0 percent (annual rate) in the second quarter.
  • The Conference Board LEI for Australia decreased in October for the third consecutive month and its six-month growth rate remains in negative territory. Meanwhile, the CEI for Australia continues to post moderate gains, but its six-month growth rate has slowed compared to the first half of the year. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that economic expansion should continue in the near term, but the pace is unlikely to pick up in early 2015.

LEADING INDICATORS. Three of the seven components in The Conference Board LEI for Australia increased in October. The positive contributors to the index — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — were share prices, the yield spread, and money supply*. Building approvals, the sales to inventories ratio*, rural goods exports, and gross operating surplus* declined in October.

With the 0.2 percent decrease in October, The Conference Board LEI for Australia now stands at 127.0 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index declined 0.6 percent in September and declined 0.3 percent in August. During the six-month period through October, the leading economic index decreased 1.0 percent, and three of the seven components increased (diffusion index, six-month span equals 42.9 percent).

COINCIDENT INDICATORS. All four components in The Conference Board CEI for Australia increased in October. The increases—in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest—occurred in retail trade, household gross disposable income*, employed persons, and industrial production*.

With the increase of 0.2 percent in October, The Conference Board CEI for Australia now stands at 125.8 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.2 percent in September and increased 0.2 percent in August. During the six-month period through October, the coincident economic index increased 0.8 percent, with all four components making positive contributions (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).

DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Australia and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Australia reported in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. ET on December 22, 2014. Some series are estimated as noted below.

Series in The Conference Board LEI for Australia that are based on our estimates are sales to inventory ratio and gross operating surplus for private non-financial corporations, the implicit price index used to deflate rural goods exports and building approvals, and the CPI used to deflate money supply M3. Series in The Conference Board CEI for Australia that are based on our estimates are industrial production and household disposable income. CPI was used to deflate retail trade.

THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.