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Global Business Cycle Indicators

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Benchmark Revisions - January 2008

Press Release Archive

Released: Wednesday, December 23, 2015

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Next month's data release will incorporate annual benchmark revisions to the composite economic indexes, which bring them up-to-date with revisions in the source data. These revisions do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are not incorporated until the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes, in levels and month-on-month changes, will not be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision.

Beginning in January, we will no longer issue monthly Technical Notes and related documents for The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Australia. We will post the data tables on the website and the release time will be changed to 10:30 AM ET.

For more information, please visit our website at:
www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfmor contact us at indicators@conference-board.org

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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Australia declined 0.1 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) increased 0.4 percent in October.

    • The Conference Board LEI for Australia declined slightly in October, with large negative contributions from the sales to inventories ratio component and rural goods exports more than offsetting the positive contribution from share prices. Between April and October 2015, the leading economic index decreased 1.3 percent (about a −2.7 percent annual rate), a reversal from the growth of 1.1 percent (about a 2.2 percent annual rate) over the previous six months. The strengths among the leading indicators remain slightly more widespread than the weaknesses.
    • The Conference Board CEI for Australia, a measure of current economic activity, improved in October for the sixth consecutive month. The coincident economic index increased 1.4 percent (about a 2.8 percent annual rate) in the six-month period ending October 2015, moderately better than its growth of 1.2 percent (about a 2.5 percent annual rate) over the previous six months. Meanwhile, real GDP grew by 3.8 percent (annual rate) in the third quarter, up from 1.0 percent (annual rate) in the second quarter.

* The Conference Board LEI for Australia decreased in October and has been on a downward trend for most of this year. As a result, its six-month growth rate has remained in negative territory. Meanwhile, the CEI for Australia continues to increase modestly. Taken together, the negative growth of LEI combined with the moderate growth of the CEI suggests that the current economic expansion should continue into early next year, but the pace is most likely to taper off.

 

LEADING INDICATORS. Four of the seven components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Australia increased in October. The positive contributors to the index — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — are share prices, money supply*, the yield spread, and gross operating surplus*. The sales to inventories ratio* component, rural goods exports, and building approvals declined in October.

With the 0.1 percent decrease in October, The Conference Board LEI for Australia now stands at 102.5 (2010=100). Based on revised data, this index declined 0.3 percent in September and declined 0.6 percent in August. During the six-month period through October, the leading economic index decreased 1.3 percent, and four of the seven components increased (diffusion index, six-month span equals 57.1 percent).

 

COINCIDENT INDICATORS. All four components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Australia increased in October. The increases — in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – occurred in employed persons, retail trade, household gross disposable income*, and industrial production*.

With the increase of 0.4 percent in October, The Conference Board CEI for Australia now stands at 109.5 (2010=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.2 percent in September and increased 0.3 percent in August. During the six-month period through October, the coincident economic index increased 1.4 percent, with all four components in the series making positive contributions (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).

DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Australia and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Australia reported in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. ET on December 21, 2015. Some series are estimated as noted below.

Series in The Conference Board LEI for Australia that are based on our estimates are sales to inventory ratio and gross operating surplus for private non-financial corporations, the implicit price index used to deflate rural goods exports and building approvals, and the CPI used to deflate money supply M3. Series in The Conference Board CEI for Australia that are based on our estimates are industrial production and household disposable income. CPI was used to deflate retail trade.

THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.