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Global Business Cycle Indicators


Press Release Archive

Released: Monday, June 20, 2005

The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Mexico decreased 0.2 percent, while the coincident index increased 0.1 percent in April.

  • The leading index fell slightly in April, and there were downward revisions to the previous two months as actual data for the construction component of industrial production became available. As a result, the leading index has been flat or down slightly over the last six months, and the strength among the leading indicators continues to be less widespread.
  • Real GDP declined at a 2.5 percent annual rate in the first quarter of 2005, down from 4.8 percent average growth over the previous four quarters. The behavior of the leading index in recent months suggests that the economy's contraction in the first quarter should not persist, but instead that the economy should grow at a sluggish pace in the near term.

Leading Indicators.Two of the six components that make up the leading index increased in April. The positive contributors to the index—from the larger positive contributor to the smaller one—are the industrial production construction component* and the US refiners acquisition cost of domestic and imported crude oil. Stock prices, net insufficient inventories, the (inverted) federal funds rate, and the (inverted) real exchange rate declined in April.

With the decrease of 0.2 percent in April, the leading index now stands at 146.5 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index was unchanged in March and declined 0.3 percent in February. During the six-month span through April, the index declined 0.6 percent, with three of the six components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 50.0 percent).

Coincident Indicators.Two of the four components that make up the coincident index decreased in April. The negative contributors were the (inverted) unemployment rate and retail sales*. Industrial production and number of people employed (measured by IMSS beneficiaries) increased in April.

With the 0.1 percent increase in April, the coincident index now stands at 115.6 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index declined 0.3 percent in March and was unchanged in February. During the six-month span through April, the index remained unchanged, with three of the four components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 62.5 percent).

Data Availability.The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. June 17, 2005. Some series are estimated as noted below.

NOTES:* Series in the leading index based on The Conference Board estimates include industrial production - construction component. The series in the coincident index based on The Conference Board estimates include retail sales.