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Global Business Cycle Indicators

Mexico

Press Release Archive

Released: Friday, August 22, 2014

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Mexico increased 1.7 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) increased 0.3 percent in June.

  • The Conference Board LEI for Mexico increased sharply in June, with net insufficient inventories, the construction component of industrial production, stock prices, and oil prices making large positive contributions. With this month’s gain, the leading economic index grew 1.9 percent (about a 3.8 percent annual rate) in the first half of 2014, improving from the 0.4 percent increase (about a 0.8 percent annual rate) for the previous six months. Moreover, the strengths among the leading indicators have become more widespread than the weaknesses in the last six months. 
  • The Conference Board CEI for Mexico, a measure of current economic activity, also increased in June. The six-month growth rate of the coincident economic index picked up to 1.5 percent (about a 3.1 percent annual rate) in the first half of this year, faster than the increase of 1.1 percent (about a 2.2 percent annual rate) during the second half of 2013. Meanwhile, real GDP grew by a 1.1 percent annual rate in the first quarter of 2014, up from the 0.5 percent increase (annual rate) in the fourth quarter of last year.
  • The LEI for Mexico increased in June, for the fourth consecutive month. As a result, its six-month growth has turned positive and is largely improved compared to the second half of last year. Meanwhile, the rate of growth in the CEI has continued to pick up through the first half of this year, with very widespread strengths among its components. Taken together, the continued improvement in both the LEI and the CEI growth suggests that the rate of economic expansion will likely pick up in the second half of 2014.

LEADING INDICATORS.  Five of the six components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Mexico increased in June. The positive contributors to the index—from the largest positive contributor to the smallest one— are net insufficient inventories, the industrial production construction component,  stock prices, the US refiners’ acquisition cost of domestic and imported crude oil, and the (inverted) federal funds rate.  The (inverted) real exchange rate decreased in June.  

With the 1.7 percent increase in June, The Conference Board LEI for Mexico now stands at 125.7 (2004=100).  Based on revised data, this index increased 0.9 percent in May and increased 1.0 percent in April.  During the six-month span through June, the index increased 1.9 percent, with four of the six components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 75.0 percent).

COINCIDENT INDICATORS.  All three components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Mexico increased in June. The positive contributors —from the largest positive contributor to the smallest one— are number of people employed (measured by IMSS beneficiaries), industrial production, and retail sales.  

With the increase of 0.3 percent in June, The Conference Board CEI for Mexico now stands at 124.6 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.5 percent in May and increased 0.3 percent in April.  During the six-month span through June, the index increased 1.5 percent, with all three components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).
 

DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. August 20, 2014. Some series are estimated as noted below.

NOTES: There are no forecasted series in The Conference Board LEI.  The series in The Conference Board CEI for Mexico is based on The Conference Board’s estimates for retail sales.

THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.