Press Release Archive
Released: Tuesday, September 23, 2014
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Mexico increased 0.1 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) increased 0.2 percent in July.
- The Conference Board LEI for Mexico edged up in July, with stock prices, net insufficient inventories and the (inverted) real exchange rate making positive contributions. Following this month’s improvement, the leading economic index grew by a 3.4 percent (about a 7.0 percent annual rate) in the six-month period ending July 2014, a reversal from the decline of 1.2 percent (about a 2.4 percent annual rate) for the previous six months. Also, the strengths among the leading indicators have become very widespread in recent months.
- The Conference Board CEI for Mexico, a measure of current economic activity, increased again in July. Between January and July 2014, the coincident economic index grew by 1.6 percent (about a 3.3 percent annual rate), moderately faster than its growth of 1.1 percent (about a 2.1 percent annual rate) over the previous six months. Meanwhile, real GDP expanded by 4.2 percent (annual rate) in the second quarter of 2014, up from 1.7 percent (annual rate) in the first quarter of the year.
- The LEI for Mexico increased only marginally in July, but its six-month growth rate remains improved compared to the latter half of last year. Meanwhile, the CEI for Mexico also increased slightly, and its six-month growth remains moderately better. Taken together, the recent gains in both the LEI and CEI suggest that economic activity should continue to expand, but the pace is unlikely to accelerate further in the near term.
LEADING INDICATORS. Four of the six components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Mexico increased in July. The positive contributors to the index—from the largest positive contributor to the smallest one— are stock prices, net insufficient inventories, the (inverted) real exchange rate, and the (inverted) federal funds rate. The US refiners’ acquisition cost of domestic and imported crude oil and the industrial production construction component decreased in July.
With the 0.1 percent increase in July, The Conference Board LEI for Mexico now stands at 126.0 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 1.8 percent in June and increased 1.1 percent in May. During the six-month span through July, the index increased 3.4 percent, with all six components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Two of the three components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Mexico increased in July. The positive contributors —from the larger positive contributor to the smaller one— are the number of people employed (measured by IMSS beneficiaries) and industrial production. Retail sales remained unchanged in July.
With the increase of 0.2 percent in July, The Conference Board CEI for Mexico now stands at 124.9 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.4 percent in both June and in May. During the six-month span through July, the index increased 1.6 percent, with all three components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).
DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 5 P.M. September 19, 2014. Some series are estimated as noted below.
NOTES: There are no forecasted series in The Conference Board LEI. The series in The Conference Board CEI for Mexico is based on The Conference Board’s estimates for retail sales.
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.