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Global Business Cycle Indicators

Mexico

Press Release Archive

Released: Friday, November 14, 2014

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Mexico declined 1.3 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) increased 0.4 percent in September.

  • The Conference Board LEI for Mexico fell sharply in September following moderate declines in the previous two months. Large negative contributions from net insufficient inventories and oil prices contributed to the decrease in the index. Despite this month’s decline, the leading economic index grew by 2.1 percent (about a 4.2 percent annual rate) between March and September 2014, reversing its decline of 2.0 percent (about a -4.0 percent annual rate) for the previous six months. Moreover, the strengths among the leading indicators have remained more widespread than the weaknesses in recent months.
  • The Conference Board CEI for Mexico, a measure of current economic activity, increased again in September. The coincident economic index grew by 1.9 percent (about a 3.9 percent annual rate) during the six-month period ending September 2014, faster than its growth of 1.1 percent (about a 2.3 percent annual rate) over the previous six months. Meanwhile, real GDP expanded by 4.2 percent (annual rate) in the second quarter of 2014, up from 1.8 percent (annual rate) in the first quarter of the year.
  • The LEI for Mexico has been falling for three consecutive months through September, mainly driven by weaker oil prices and higher levels of inventories. Its six-month growth rate remains slightly better than in the first half of the year, but the rate of acceleration has moderated during the third quarter. Meanwhile, the CEI for Mexico continues its upward trend through September, and its six-month growth rate has also picked up. Despite the strength in the CEI, the recent slowing in the rate of growth in the LEI suggests that the economic expansion should continue into early 2015, but an acceleration in the pace of growth is unlikely.

LEADING INDICATORS. Five of the six components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Mexico decreased in September. The negative contributors to the index—from the largest negative contributor to the smallest one— are net insufficient inventories, the US refiners’ acquisition cost of domestic and imported crude oil, stock prices, the industrial production construction component, and the (inverted) real exchange rate. The (inverted) federal funds rate remained unchanged.

With the 1.3 percent decrease in September, The Conference Board LEI for Mexico now stands at 123.8 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index declined 0.2 percent in August and declined 0.1 percent in July. During the six-month span through September, the index increased 2.1 percent, with four of the six components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 75.0 percent).

COINCIDENT INDICATORS. All three components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Mexico increased in September. The positive contributors —from the largest positive contributor to the smallest one— are number of people employed (measured by IMSS beneficiaries), retail sales, and industrial production.

With the increase of 0.4 percent in September, The Conference Board CEI for Mexico now stands at 125.6 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.2 percent in August and increased 0.3 percent in July. During the six-month span through September, the index increased 1.9 percent, with all three components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).

DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. November 11, 2014. Some series are estimated as noted below.

NOTES: There are no forecasted series in The Conference Board LEI. The series in The Conference Board CEI for Mexico is based on The Conference Board’s estimates for retail sales.

THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.