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Global Business Cycle Indicators

Mexico

Press Release Archive

Released: Friday, July 17, 2015

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Mexico declined 0.4 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) remained unchanged in May.

  • The Conference Board LEI for Mexico fell in May following a small decline in April. A large gain in oil prices was more than offset by negative contributions from net insufficient inventories, the construction component of industrial production, and the (inverted) real exchange rate. Between November 2014 and May 2015, the leading economic index declined by 4.0 percent (about a −7.9 percent annual rate), a sharp reversal from the 0.8 percent increase (about a 1.5 percent annual rate) over the previous six months. Moreover, the weaknesses among the leading indicators were very widespread in the last six months.
  • The Conference Board CEI for Mexico, a measure of current economic activity, was unchanged in May. The coincident economic index increased by 1.3 percent (about a 2.6 percent annual rate) between November 2014 and May 2015, slower than its 1.9 percent increase (about a 3.8 percent annual rate) over the previous six months. Meanwhile, real GDP expanded by 1.6 percent (annual rate) in the first quarter of 2015, down from 2.7 percent (annual rate) in the last quarter of 2014.
  • The LEI for Mexico fell in May, and has declined in five of the last six months. As a result, the six-month change in the LEI remains negative. Meanwhile, the six-month growth rate of the CEI has moderated from the second half of last year. The widespread weakness in the LEI and the slower growth in the CEI suggest that Mexico’s economy will continue struggling to gain traction in the second half of 2015.

LEADING INDICATORS. Two of the six components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Mexico increased in May. The positive contributors to the index—from the larger positive contributor to the smaller one— are the US refiners’ acquisition cost of domestic and imported crude oil and stock prices. Net insufficient inventories, the industrial production construction component, and the (inverted) real exchange rate decreased in May, while the (inverted) federal funds rate remained unchanged.

With the 0.4 percent decrease in May, The Conference Board LEI for Mexico now stands at 102.0 (2010=100). Based on revised data, this index declined 0.2 percent in April and increased 1.5 percent in March. During the six-month span through May, the index decreased 4.0 percent, with two of the six components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 25.0 percent).

COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Two of the three components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Mexico increased in May. The positive contributors —from the larger positive contributor to the smaller one— are number of people employed (measured by IMSS beneficiaries) and retail sales. Industrial production declined in May.

Remaining unchanged in May, The Conference Board CEI for Mexico now stands at 115.6 (2010=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.3 percent in April and increased 0.3 percent in March. During the six-month span through May, the index increased 1.3 percent, with two of the three components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 66.7 percent).

DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. July 15, 2015. Some series are estimated as noted below.

NOTES: There are no forecasted series in The Conference Board LEI. The series in The Conference Board CEI for Mexico based on The Conference Board’s estimates is retail sales.

THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.