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Global Business Cycle Indicators

Mexico

Press Release Archive

Released: Wednesday, October 14, 2015

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Mexico declined 1.5 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) increased 0.3 percent in August.

 

  • The Conference Board LEI for Mexico declined sharply again in August, with the majority of its components making negative contributions. The leading economic index declined by 2.7 percent (about a −5.3 percent annual rate) between February and August 2015, a less steep contraction than the decline of 5.2 percent (about a −10.2 percent annual rate) over the previous six months. However, the weaknesses among the leading indicators have become more widespread than the strengths in the last six months.
  • The Conference Board CEI for Mexico, a measure of current economic activity, increased slightly again in August. In the six-month period ending in August 2015, the coincident economic index increased by 1.5 percent (about a 3.0 percent annual rate), only slightly slower than its 1.6 percent increase (about a 3.2 percent annual rate) over the prior six months. Meanwhile, real GDP expanded by 2.0 percent (annual rate) in the second quarter, slightly up from the 1.7 percent growth (annual rate) in the first quarter.
  • The LEI for Mexico fell sharply again in August, its fifth consecutive monthly decline. The weaknesses among its components have also become widespread. As a result, the six-month change in the LEI remains negative, although the rate of decline is not as steep as in the beginning of the year. Meanwhile, the six-month growth rate of the CEI remains relatively steady. The LEI for Mexico continues on a downward trend, suggesting that Mexico’s economic activity is unlikely to improve this year.

 

LEADING INDICATORS. Only one of the six components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Mexico increased in August. The negative contributors to the index—from the largest negative contributor to the smallest one— are the US refiners’ acquisition cost of domestic and imported crude oil, the (inverted) real exchange rate, and stock prices. Net insufficient inventories* increased, while the industrial production construction component* and the (inverted) federal funds rate remained unchanged in August.

With the 1.5 percent decrease in August, The Conference Board LEI for Mexico now stands at 98.5 (2010=100). Based on revised data, this index declined 1.1 percent in July and declined 0.8 percent in June. During the six-month span through August, the index decreased 2.7 percent, with only one of the six components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 25.0 percent).

 

COINCIDENT INDICATORS. All three components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Mexico increased in August. The positive contributors —from the largest positive contributor to the smallest one— are number of people employed (measured by IMSS beneficiaries), retail sales*, and industrial production*.

With the increase of 0.3 percent in August, The Conference Board CEI for Mexico now stands at 116.7 (2010=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.3 percent in July and in June. During the six-month span through August, the index increased 1.5 percent, with all three components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).

 

DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. October 12, 2015. Some series are estimated as noted below.

 

NOTES:

The series in The Conference Board CEI for Mexico that are based on The Conference Board’s estimates are industrial production and retail sales. The series in The Conference Board LEI for Mexico that are based on The Conference Board’s estimates are net insufficient inventories and the industrial production construction component.

THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.