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Global Business Cycle Indicators

Mexico

Press Release Archive

Released: Monday, December 14, 2015

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Next month's data release will incorporate annual benchmark revisions to the composite economic indexes, which bring them up-to-date with revisions in the source data. These revisions do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are not incorporated until the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes, in levels and month-on-month changes, will not be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision.

Beginning in January, we will no longer issue monthly Technical Notes and related documents for The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Mexico. We will post the data tables on the website and the release time will continue to be 11:00 AM ET.

For more information, please visit our website at www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm or contact us at indicators@conference-board.org.

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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Mexico increased 0.7 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) increased 0.3 percent in October.

  • The Conference Board LEI for Mexico increased in October, and September was revised to a gain. Stock prices, the real exchange rate (inverted), and oil prices made the largest positive contributions to the index in October. Despite the gain, the leading economic index declined 2.9 percent (about a −5.8 percent annual rate) between April and October 2015 – a slightly deeper contraction than the 2.6 percent decline (about a –5.1 percent annual rate) over the previous six months. Moreover, the weaknesses among the leading indicators have remained more widespread than the strengths in recent months.
  • The Conference Board CEI for Mexico, a measure of current economic activity, improved slightly again in October. The coincident economic index increased 1.7 percent (about a 3.5 percent annual rate) between April and October 2015, marginally faster than its growth of 1.6 percent (about a 3.2 percent annual rate) over the previous six months. Meanwhile, real GDP expanded by 3.0 percent (annual rate) in the third quarter of this year, up from 2.5 percent (annual rate) in the second quarter.
  • The LEI for Mexico increased in October for a second consecutive month. However, its six-month change remains negative with widespread weaknesses among its components. At the same time, the CEI continues to grow at a relatively steady pace. Despite the small improvements in both the LEI and CEI, the persistent weaknesses among the leading indicators over the last six months continue to suggest that Mexico’s rate of economic expansion is unlikely to pick up in coming months.

 

LEADING INDICATORS. Five of the six components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Mexico increased in October. The positive contributors to the index—from the largest positive contributor to the smallest one— are stock prices, the (inverted) real exchange rate, US refiners’ acquisition cost of domestic and imported crude oil, net insufficient inventories*, and the industrial production construction component. The (inverted) federal funds rate remained unchanged.

With the 0.7 percent increase in October, The Conference Board LEI for Mexico now stands at 99.6 (2010=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.5 percent in September and declined 1.6 percent in August. During the six-month span through October, the index decreased 2.9 percent, with two of the six components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 25.0 percent).

 

COINCIDENT INDICATORS. All three components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Mexico increased in October. The positive contributors —from the largest positive contributor to the smallest one — are number of people employed (measured by IMSS beneficiaries), industrial production, and retail sales*.

With the increase of 0.3 percent in October, The Conference Board CEI for Mexico now stands at 117.6 (2010=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.3 percent in September and increased 0.5 percent in August. During the six-month span through October, the index increased 1.7 percent, with all three components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 100.0 percent).

 

DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available “as of” 10 A.M. December 11, 2015. Some series are estimated as noted below.

NOTES: The series in The Conference Board CEI for Mexico that is based on The Conference Board’s estimates is retail sales. The series in The Conference Board LEI for Mexico that is based on The Conference Board’s estimates is net insufficient inventories.

THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.