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Released: Thursday, April 18, 2019

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. Increased

Despite Gain, US Economic Growth Likely to Moderate by Year End

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI)for theU.S. increased 0.4 percent in March to 111.9 (2016 = 100), following a 0.1 percent increase in February, and no change in January.

“The US LEI picked up in March with labor markets, consumers’ outlook, and financial conditions making the largest contributions,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. ”Despite the relatively large gain in March, the trend in the US LEI continues to moderate, suggesting that growth in the US economy is likely to decelerate toward its long term potential of about 2 percent by year end.”

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. increased 0.1 percent in March to 105.8 (2016 = 100), following a 0.1 percent increase in February, and no change in January.  

The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the U.S. increased 0.1 percent in March to 107.0 (2016 = 100), following no change in February, and a 0.6 percent increase in January.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for the U.S.

The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading, coincident, and lagging economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading, coincident, or lagging indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for the U.S. include:

Average weekly hours, manufacturing

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance

Manufacturers’ new orders, consumer goods and materials

ISM® Index of New Orders

Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders

Building permits, new private housing units

Stock prices, 500 common stocks

Leading Credit Index™

Interest rate spread, 10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds

Average consumer expectations for business conditions

For full press release and technical notes:

http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=1

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators:

http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers trusted insights for what’s ahead. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.conference-board.org.

The next release is scheduled for Friday, May 17 at 10 A.M. ET.

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