The Conference Board Measure of CEO Confidence™
THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.
CEO Confidence Declines
08 Apr. 2015
The Conference Board and PwC Measure of CEO Confidence™, which had improved slightly in the fourth quarter of 2014, declined in the first quarter of 2015. The Measure now reads 57, down from 60 in the fourth quarter (a reading of more than 50 points reflects more positive than negative responses).
“Optimism among CEOs retreated in the first quarter of 2015, and while expectations for growth prospects in the U.S. remained positive, they were less favorable than last quarter. Meanwhile, expectations for Europe, China and Brazil continued to decline,” said Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “Regarding the price of oil, more than half of CEOs estimate the price will be between $55 and $74 a barrel six months from now, and two-thirds estimate that will be the price a year from now.”
CEOs’ appraisal of current economic conditions was more positive than last quarter. Approximately 55 percent claim conditions were better compared to six months ago, up from 52 percent in the fourth quarter of 2014. However, business leaders’ assessment of conditions in their own industries declined. Now, just 35 percent say conditions in their own industries have improved, compared with 43 percent last quarter.
CEOs were more pessimistic regarding the short-term outlook. About 38 percent of business leaders anticipate economic conditions will improve over the next six months, down from 49 percent last quarter. Expectations for their own industries, however, were down moderately, with 34 percent of CEOs anticipating an improvement, compared to 36 percent in the fourth quarter of last year.
CEOs were more positive in their assessment of current economic conditions in Japan, Europe, and China, but overall sentiment remains negative. CEO sentiment in the U.S. and India remains upbeat, but CEOs’ assessment of Brazil has grown more pessimistic since last quarter.
Looking ahead, expectations for India and the U.S. remain favorable, while CEOs remain pessimistic regarding the outlook for Europe, China, Japan, and Brazil.
CEOs Expect Moderate Increases in Oil Prices
In a special question asked this quarter, CEOs were asked to estimate the price of a barrel of oil six and twelve months from now. About 56 percent estimate the price will be $55 to $74 a barrel six months from now, and two-thirds estimate that will be the price a year from now. Only 40 percent expect the price be $40 to $54 in six months’ time, while just 15 percent expect this to be the case a year from now. Less than 5 percent expect oil will reach $75 over the next six months, but about 18 percent believe this is a possibility twelve months from now. None of CEOs surveyed foresee prices declining to $40 or less.
Survey results were fielded from mid-February to mid-March
Source: CEO Confidence Survey 1st Quarter 2015
The Conference Board
About the PwC Network
PwC firms help organizations and individuals create the value they’re looking for. We’re a network of firms in 158 countries with more than 180,000 people who are committed to delivering quality in assurance, tax and advisory services. Tell us what matters to you and find out more by visiting us at www.pwc.com.
© 2015 PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership. All rights reserved. PwC refers to the United States member firm, and may sometimes refer to the PwC network. Each member firm is a separate legal entity. Please see www.pwc.com/structure for further details. This content is for general information purposes only, and should not be used as a substitute for consultation with professional advisors.
About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world’s leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.conference-board.org
You may not reproduce, distribute (in any form including over any local area or other network or service), display, perform, create derivative works of, sell, license, extract for use in a database, or otherwise use any materials (including computer programs and other code) contained in this news release (“News Material”), except that you may download News Material in the form of one machine readable copy that you will use solely for purposes of news coverage in your publication(s) and not for any other purpose (including any reproduction or distribution, with or without charge, in a database, service bureau or similar service or activity). All rights not expressly granted herein by TCB are expressly reserved. You may not alter the News Material or remove any trademark, copyright or other notice displayed on the News Material. If you are a subscriber to any of the services offered by The Conference Board, you may be permitted to use News Material, according to the terms of your subscription agreement.
“THE CONFERENCE BOARD,” the TORCH LOGO, “CEO CONFIDENCE SURVEY,” “MEASURE OF CEO CONFIDENCE,” and other logos, indicia and trademarks featured on Our Sites are trademarks owned by The Conference Board, Inc. in the United States and other countries (“Our Trademarks”).
You may not use Our Trademarks in connection with any product or service that does not belong to us nor in any manner that is likely to cause confusion among users about whether The Conference Board is the source, sponsor, or endorser of the product or service, nor in any manner that disparages or discredits us.
Nothing herein shall restrict the use of the information by news journalists using the information in a legitimate news publication or periodical.